A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
