Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
